In-store Conversions Key to 2021 Holiday Performance


Converting store visits to spending was the key to 2021 holiday retail performance during a season marked by earlier shopping and fewer discounts than ever before. Target stood out among its big-box peers–converting double digit YoY visit growth to higher in-store spend, while also topping online sales growth. Walmart* was less successful at converting YoY visits to sales growth, and was unable to grow online as it lapped historically high sales in 2020. 

Earnest Retail Ranking leader Kohl’s not only placed highest among Black Friday/Cyber Monday share of apparel spending, but also converted robust visit growth into in-store spend growth. The retailer’s online growth declined inline with other major holiday retail leaders as surpassing 2020 proved to be difficult

Visits to Home Improvement retailers The Home Depot and Lowe’s fell after breaking records in 2020. Flat to slightly down online sales growth could not offset the in-store spend declines.


*Walmart Online includes Walmart Online Grocery

All merchant performance trends should be interpreted in the context of our EarnestKPI backtest differentials. For a better understanding of our biases and differentials, please schedule a demo.

Interested in seeing our data products in action?
Schedule a demo today.