Seats Left at the Box Office

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While much has been said about the latest meme-driven rally in AMC’s share price, we used Earnest Foot Traffic data to look at actual customer behavior and understand what’s really happening with movie theater attendance.

AMC, with the largest footprint, recently saw traffic -62% of May 2019 levels—likely benefiting from the outperformance we’ve seen across several sectors in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, despite their lower vaccination rates. Conversely, Regal’s exposure to New York and California are likely a drag on their recovery, at -67% vs. May 2019, as those states have been slower to return to pre-COVID habits than others. Meanwhile the smallest chain, Cinemark, recovered -62% vs. May 2019, benefiting from its outsized Texas footprint.

With many of this summer’s blockbusters also available at home via HBO Max, it will be interesting to see what impact The Heights (June 11th), Space Jam: A New Legacy (July 9th), and The Suicide Squad (Aug. 6) have when released—or will there be a new normal for the industry?


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