Earnings by Earnest: 4Q 2017


Earnings by Earnest highlights recent examples of how Earnest tools tracked business health per management’s commentary on earnings results.

For 4Q 2017, we looked at Six Flags, Walmart, Wayfair and Papa John’s.

Six Flags 4Q 2017
Earnings Call February 20, 2018

“Attendance in the fourth quarter was adversely impacted by two earthquakes in Mexico, wildfires in California and bone-chilling cold weather over the Christmas holidays in most of our markets…resulted in a 3% decline in attendance.” 

Earnest data shows a deceleration in New York CBSA panel sales in November, when the Arctic blast swept through, and in Southern California in December, when wildfires put a damper on travel.

“Active Pass Base was up 10% over prior year-end. This significantly growing group of loyal guests creates a huge recurring revenue stream for us…providing a hedge against inclement weather events.”

Number of quarters since first purchase

Earnest data shows that customers who buy their passes in 1Q have significantly higher customer lifetime value at Six Flags.

Walmart Q4 2017
Earnings Call February 20, 2018

“Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) at Walmart U.S. increased 24%, [down from 54% from Q3 2017].”

Earnest data shows a ~29% deceleration in YoY online sales growth between 3Q18 and 4Q18. Despite over-capturing online growth in 1Q18, likely due to the Jet.com acquisition, our data has accurately captured the business inflections in WMT’s online sales.

Wayfair 4Q 2017
Earnings Call February 22, 2018

“Newer cohorts have higher revenue yield per customer due to improvements in Wayfair site, selection, merchandising and delivery.”

Number of quarters since first purchase

Earnest data shows that cohorts of new Wayfair customers have a higher lifetime value.

Papa Johns 4Q 2017
Earnings Call February 28, 2018

“We’ve had some pressure over the last couple of years on closures, more specifically, the West Coast and the Northeast, where we’ve had some wage pressures that are driving some of the unit economic challenges we have experienced there.”

Earnest data shows the slowest growth rates for the Northeast and West regions over the last four quarters.

For more details about this analysis or our EarnestQuery product, please schedule a demo or reach out to [email protected].


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